We may be headed into a holiday weekendđșđž, but the d0C is back with one more StarLadder CIS RMR 2021 slate breakdown and analysis! Itâs day 2 of the Playoffs, and we have the same 4 teams on the slate, albeit in different match-ups. On Saturday, July 3, 2021, DraftKings is offering a 2 match CS:GO slate with a lock at 10:00am ET. Here is my âNotes Sheetâ for this slate.
Match Breakdown
In the Lower final match, Spirit (-400) are the favorites against K23 (+275) in this double elimination tournament. Loser of this match goes home in fourth place, while the winner advances to the Consolidation final for a chance to make the Grand final. While the map win rates look even, SPI dominates across the rest of the âNotes Sheetâ categories. SPI defeated K23 2-1 this past Monday and in the last 15 maps these teams have played, SPI holds a 13-2 edge. The lean is SPI and I will be looking to get 2-3 of their top players in all my lineups.
The the Upper final match sees Gambit (-170) as a slight favorite again versus Natus Vincere (+130). These teams went 3 maps just two days ago and GAM came out on top after dropping the first map (Mirage). Over the last 28 maps these teams have played H2H, this series is tied 14-14 with 3 OTs. Back in May, at the DreamHack Masters Spring 2021 event, NAVI beat GAM in the Grand final bo5 3 maps to 0 to win the event after losing to GAM just a few days before 2 maps to 1. So with these two teams, anything can happen.
I dug into the player event stats for these teams, to see if I could find a new angle to approach picking a winner.
While NAVI has played one more map than GAM in this event, the player ratings kind of tell us what weâve seen over the past six days, GAM is playing at a pretty high level across their entire roster, while NAVIâs top guys are playing well, but their bottom 3 just arenât as effective as GAMâs bottom 3. When we look at GAM specifically, interz and nafany have stepped up their play in this event, and the results prove it.
A look at the âNotes Sheetâ shows GAM the statistical favorite in all categories, and this, plus the GAM roster performing at a slightly more consistent level at this event has me leaning GAM in this match. Iâm hoping for a close and competitive match, mainly so that players on both teams have ample opportunity to rack up kills and DFS points.
Building Lineups
Have I mentioned how much I dislike 2 match slates? Yes, GAM versus NAVI Part 2 is juicy and I want to gamble on it, but the player pool is small and you just know the top guys on both squads will be priced up. Iâm going to look to start with a 3/3 roster build in both cash and GPP contests. On this slate, I would look for 3 SPI/3 GAM.
Depending on GAM salaries, I will give consideration to a 3/2/1 lineup in GPPs, making sure to only have 3 players from each match when I build. On this slate, it will most likely look like 3 SPI/2 GAM/1 NAVI. The real question with this approach will be, can we get 3 decent SPI guys along with 2 top GAM players + s1mple?
At this stage of event play, most of the players on these rosters are in consideration for play when it comes to GAM, SPI and NAVI. I doubt I will have much, if any, K23 in my builds. Rather than go over specific players in detail, I will provide them below in my player pool, and I will discuss my specific strategy for this slate.
What strategy is that? Itâs the play light get different strategy. I know this isnât a ârealâ DFS strategy, but after reviewing the salaries, the top 3 GAM, top 2 SPI and top NAVI player are all $11.7/$7.8 salary or higher. This is going to make 3-3 favorite builds really challenging. Personally, I wonât be playing any cash contests on this slate. I will play a few GPP lineups, but fewer than I normally would.
Remember I said âget differentâ was a part of the strategy too? In those few GPP lines I play, Iâm going to look for an edge on the NAVI side. Sure, I said the lean was GAM, but their salaries are prohibitive and I think there is a good enough chance NAVI comes in and knocks them off, setting up a possibly rubber match for the Grand final on Sunday, to look for lower ownership than normal on NAVI and possibly leverage that to a nice payday. Looking over the salaries, I really like the salary spot electronic* ($10.8/$7.2) and B1T ($9.6/$6.4) are in on this slate and I will be heavy on them in my builds. I may also look at some unconventional builds, like a roster with two 2/1 game stacks.
Player Pool
These are players I am considering in cash and GPP lineups, along with my *preferred captain plays. Players are listed by team, in order of preference. When constructing lineups, make sure to follow one of the strategies laid out in the Building Lineups section above.
GAM: Ax1le | sh1ro | Hobbit* | nafany | interz
SPI:Â mir | degster* | sdy | magixx
NAVI:Â s1mple*Â |Â electronic*Â | B1T
K23: mou* | n0b3r7 | fame